Market Integrity Policy

Rules, standards, and the principles that keep Greater China prediction markets honest.

Trueindex is a prediction market platform focused on Greater China — mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and the overseas Chinese world. Participants buy and sell shares in the outcomes of future events across politics, technology, economy, and cross-strait affairs, and trades settle on-chain in USDC and USDT on Polygon. The system works because traders act on their own expertise and trust that no one is gaming the outcome.

Every trade on Trueindex settles on Polygon — permanently recorded, publicly viewable, and independently auditable by anyone in the world. That is not a slogan; it is the foundation of our surveillance program. We supplement on-chain visibility with automated monitoring, human review, and a standing willingness to cooperate with lawful requests from competent authorities in the jurisdictions where our users reside.

We take integrity seriously precisely because the questions we host are serious. Markets on elections, cross-strait relations, sanctions, chip policy, or leadership succession affect real decisions made by real families and businesses. A dishonest signal here is not a game.

Trueindex maintains and enforces rules under its Terms of Use designed to protect the integrity of every market outcome and to keep our markets free from deceptive, manipulative, and unfair trading practices. It is a violation of these terms to:

1. Trade on stolen or confidential information. You may not trade on any market if you possess non-public information about the outcome of the underlying event, where using that information would breach a preexisting duty of trust or confidence you owe to another person, employer, government, or organisation.
2. Trade on illegal tips. You may not trade on confidential information passed to you by someone who owed a duty of trust or confidence to another party — if you know or have reason to know that they would be prohibited from trading on it themselves.
3. Trade if you can influence the outcome. You may not trade on any market if you hold a position of authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event. You also may not trade at the direction of someone who holds such a position.

Every Trueindex settlement is written to Polygon: permanent, public, and visible to anyone, anywhere. The entire world can surveil our markets — not just us. We rely on that transparency, together with on-chain analytics and our own monitoring, to enforce our terms of use and applicable laws.

To illustrate these concepts, here are hypothetical examples of what is and is not allowed under Trueindex's rules.

Prohibited

1. You work in the office of a senior Chinese official and see a draft policy announcement before it is released. There is a Trueindex market on whether that policy will be announced this quarter. You cannot trade. The draft is confidential to your employer, and trading on it breaches your duty.
2. A friend inside a Taiwanese ministry tells you a cabinet reshuffle is coming next week and says they can't trade themselves. You cannot trade on that tip either — you know they were prohibited from trading on it.
3. You are an editor at a wire service and you already know the wording of a headline you are about to publish that will resolve a "Mentions" market. You cannot trade. You owe a duty of confidentiality to your employer.
4. You are a serving officer, contractor, or intelligence analyst with access to classified information about a cross-strait or PLA operation. You cannot trade on markets related to those operations.
5. You are the CEO of a Hong Kong-listed company. There is a market on whether you will use a specific phrase during the upcoming earnings call. You cannot trade — you control the outcome.
6. You work for that CEO and they encourage you to buy "Yes." You cannot trade at the direction of anyone who holds authority or influence over the outcome.

Permitted

1. You read every public speech, party plenum readout, and Xinhua release you can find, and you form your own view about the direction of policy. You may trade. Acting on your own analysis of public information is exactly what these markets are for.
2. You built your own machine-learning model from public trade data, satellite imagery, and shipping records to forecast semiconductor export volumes. You may trade. The model is yours; the inputs are public.
3. You commissioned a polling firm to run a bespoke survey ahead of a Taiwanese election using your own methodology and your own money. You may trade. You created the data; no one else has a claim to it.
4. You live in Kowloon and you walk past a construction site every morning. You form a view about whether a major project will finish on schedule. You may trade. Your observations are your own and were obtained lawfully.

In addition to insider trading, Trueindex's Terms of Use prohibit all forms of fraud and market manipulation, self-dealing, front-running, information misuse, attempted manipulation, and disruptive practices that undermine the orderly operation of our markets, including:

• Spoofing
• Wash trading
• Fictitious transactions
• Self-dealing
• Front-running
• Information misuse
• Attempted manipulation
• Disruptive trading practices
• Fraud

Full details are set out in the Trueindex Terms of Use.

All users are subject to Trueindex's Terms of Use. We operate a layered monitoring system designed to detect potential violations, and we act on what it finds.

• Real-time surveillance. Trading activity is continuously monitored for unusual patterns, cross-account coordination, and behaviour consistent with manipulation.
• On-chain transparency. Every settlement executes on Polygon. Positions and trade history are publicly viewable on-chain.
• Disciplinary action. We can cancel trades, reverse profits, freeze balances, ban wallets, terminate accounts, take legal action, and refer matters to law enforcement when warranted.

• We do not trade against our users. Trueindex, its officers, employees, and affiliates do not trade for profit against users in live markets, do not front-run user orders, and do not use non-public platform data to trade.
• We do not fabricate outcomes. Every market resolves according to the public, verifiable sources listed in its Resolution Criteria — never on our opinion, preference, or convenience.
• We do not fabricate information. Market questions, resolution criteria, prices, on-chain settlement records, and volumes attributable to real users reflect the actual state of the system.
• We disclose what is simulated. Where a new market is seeded with bootstrap liquidity from an automated market maker so that a price exists at launch, that status is recorded on the market and never presented as independent human demand.
• We do not censor lawful outcomes. A market resolves according to its published criteria even when the outcome is inconvenient, unpopular, or unfavourable to Trueindex.

At the resolution deadline, we resolve each market strictly according to its published Resolution Criteria, using the sources listed there — official government announcements and filings, wire services such as Reuters, AP, AFP, and Xinhua, court records, or on-chain data. Where approved sources conflict, we apply the tie-break rule stated in the criteria, or, if none is stated, prefer the source with the highest evidentiary weight. Resolutions are timestamped and stored immutably. If the underlying event is cancelled, indefinitely postponed, or the sources become unavailable, we may resolve the market as "N/A" and refund open positions at their fair value at the time of suspension.

Trueindex personnel and their household members are prohibited from trading on markets where they have material non-public information about the outcome, the resolution source, or the timing of resolution. Personnel involved in market creation or resolution are prohibited from trading on the markets they design or resolve.

If you believe a market was resolved incorrectly, resolved using a source not listed in the Resolution Criteria, or that a manifest error occurred (for example a typo in the criteria, a duplicate market, or a mis-parsed source), you may submit a dispute to integrity@trueindex.io within seven (7) days of resolution. Disputes are reviewed by a panel independent of the personnel who created or resolved the market. Where a manifest error is confirmed, we will reverse or adjust the resolution and make affected users whole to the extent reasonably possible.

If you believe you have witnessed potentially manipulative or prohibited trading activity on Trueindex — or misleading market copy, or misconduct by Trueindex personnel — we want to hear from you. Reports are reviewed by our integrity team. We do not retaliate against good-faith reporters and, where lawful, we protect reporter identity.

Email integrity@trueindex.io.

Trueindex's full Terms of Use set out the complete rules that apply to every user. For general questions about this Policy, contact integrity@trueindex.io. This page will be updated periodically — please check back.